Updated on 07/04/2026 with odds, venue weather, and recent form analysis of the 16 teams still alive in the 2026 World Cup.
The round of 16 begins this Saturday (4th) and runs until Tuesday (7th), with two matches per day spread across six cities in the USA, one in Mexico, and one in Canada. From here on, ties lead to extra time and penalties — here's a summary of each matchup, what the numbers say about favoritism, and where the risk of an upset lies.
🇨🇦 Canada vs. Morocco
Saturday, 7/04 — 2 PM (Brasília) — NRG Stadium, Houston
Weather: ~26°C, feels like 31°C, no rain expected. Moderate heat, within tolerable limits for high intensity.
Recent form: Canada had an inconsistent group stage (1-1 with Bosnia, 6-0 thrashing of Qatar, loss to Switzerland) but beat South Africa 1-0 in the round of 32. Morocco, in contrast, arrives as a dark horse: 1-1 with Brazil in the group stage and an incredible come-from-behind 4-3 victory over the Netherlands (who were leading 3-1) in the round of 32.
Implied odds: Morocco 53.5% vs. Canada 18.0% (draw 28.6%).
Verdict: Morocco is the clear favorite according to the market and current momentum — the comeback against the Netherlands showed a team with character and a sharp attack (xG 1.52, but goals well above recent expectation). Canada plays on home continent and with fan support, which is always a factor for upsets in World Cups — but the Canadian defense struggled against teams of similar level. Slight Moroccan favoritism, open game with a real chance of an upset by the host.
🇵🇾 Paraguay vs. France
Saturday, 7/04 — 6 PM (Brasília) — Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Weather: ~25°C, feels like 30°C, no rain. Comfortable conditions for high-intensity football.
Recent form: France is one of the title favorites (scout rating 95.3, xG 2.52) and comes off a 3-0 win over Sweden in the round of 32 after only losing to Norway 4-1 in a match they had already qualified for. Paraguay is the big surprise of the tournament: they eliminated Germany 5-4 in a thrilling match in the round of 32 and arrive with momentum, but their historical xG (1.10) is much lower than the French level.
Implied odds: France 83.7% vs. Paraguay 3.9% (draw 12.4%).
Verdict: The market is almost unanimous here. France has the deepest squad in the tournament and Mbappé is on track to be top scorer. Paraguay has already pulled off its big upset (the win over Germany) and is unlikely to repeat the feat twice in a row against an opponent of this caliber. Overwhelming French favoritism — an upset here would be the biggest surprise of the round of 16.
🇧🇷 Brazil vs. Norway
Sunday, 7/05 — 5 PM (Brasília) — MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
Weather: ~24°C, feels like 27°C, 2% chance of rain. Good conditions, no risk of extreme heat.
Recent form: Brazil beat Japan 2-1 in the round of 32 after going through the group with 1-1, 3-0, and 3-0 — offensively they are the most creative team in the tournament (xG 4.50 based on scout data, although a reduced sample). Haaland's Norway thrashed Iraq (4-1), beat Senegal (3-2), only lost to France (1-4) after qualifying, and defeated Ivory Coast 2-1 in the round of 32 — Haaland is the tournament's top scorer so far.
Implied odds: Brazil 53.4% vs. Norway 20.5% (draw 26.1%).
Verdict: Real Brazilian favoritism, but not overwhelming — Norway's defense (xGA 0.53, best among qualifiers) is a direct contrast to the Brazilian attack. It's the classic "unstoppable offensive force vs. defensive wall with a killer in the box." Brazil is favorite, but with a risk of a tight game decided by a detail — Haaland is the most dangerous upset card in the round of 16.
🇲🇽 Mexico vs. England
Sunday, 7/05 — 9 PM (Brasília) — Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Weather: ~14°C, feels like 15°C, no rain expected. The altitude of the Azteca (~2,200m) weighs more than the temperature itself — historically it exhausts European teams late in the game.
Recent form: Mexico won all three group games (2-0, 1-0, 3-0) and beat Ecuador 2-0 in the round of 32, without conceding a goal in any of those four matches — they are undefeated and have not conceded a goal in the competition. England had a more inconsistent group (4-2, 0-0, 2-0) and defeated DR Congo 2-1 with a brilliant performance from Harry Kane.
Implied odds: England 39.2% vs. Mexico 31.1% (draw 29.7% — the most balanced of the round of 16).
Verdict: This is the most evenly matched game of the stage. Mexico plays at home, at the altitude of the Azteca, without conceding a goal so far — a huge factor. England has superior individual talent (Kane, Bellingham) but historically suffers physically at Mexican altitude. Practically a coin flip — slight bias towards Mexico due to home advantage + altitude, but it is the matchup with the highest real probability of a host upset.
🇵🇹 Portugal vs. Spain
Monday, 7/06 — 4 PM (Brasília) — AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Weather: ~28°C, feels like 29°C, no rain — warmest among the round of 16 matches (maximum predicted 42°C the next day). The stadium has a retractable roof, which can mitigate the effect.
Recent form: Spain is the highest-rated team in the scout (rating 100, xG 2.95) and thrashed Austria 3-0 in the round of 32 after beating Uruguay and drawing with Cape Verde. Portugal also arrives strong, with a 2-1 win over Croatia in the round of 32 after a 5-0 victory over Uzbekistan — Ronaldo remains decisive.
Implied odds: Spain 50.6% vs. Portugal 23.2% (draw 26.2%).
Verdict: Iberian derby with Spain as the clear technical favorite — better possession, better xG, more solid defense (xGA 0.88 vs. Portugal's 1.07). But Portugal vs. Spain clashes are historically evenly matched and emotional, with Ronaldo always a key individual factor. Spain is favorite on paper, but this type of derby has a history of surprises — pay attention to a game decided by details.
🇺🇸 United States vs. Belgium
Monday, 7/06 — 9 PM (Brasília) — Lumen Field, Seattle
Weather: ~13°C, feels like 13°C, no rain. By far the coldest conditions among the round of 16 — favors a more intense game pace and less physical exertion.
Recent form: The United States plays at home and comes off a 2-0 win over Bosnia in the round of 32, after thrashing Paraguay (4-1) and beating Australia (2-0) in the group stage — only losing to Turkey. Belgium defeated Senegal 3-2 in an open game, after thrashing New Zealand (5-1) and drawing with Egypt and Iran.
Implied odds: Belgium 37.2% vs. USA 34.1% (draw 28.7% — second most balanced game of the stage).
Verdict: Another very evenly matched encounter. The USA plays at home with fan support and has consistent results; De Bruyne's Belgium has more individual talent but a more vulnerable defense (xGA 1.11 and only 1 clean sheet in the last 4 games). Minimum Belgian favoritism on paper, but the US home factor keeps the upset very much alive here.
🇦🇷 Argentina vs. Egypt
Tuesday, 7/07 — 1 PM (Brasília) — Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Weather: ~23°C, feels like 26°C, no rain. Stadium with a retractable roof — impact of external weather tends to be reduced.
Recent form: Argentina, the second-best team in the scout (rating 97.1), easily won the group stage (3-0, 2-0) and beat Cape Verde 3-2 in the round of 32, with Messi still decisive. Egypt surprised by eliminating Australia 5-3 in the round of 32, but drew with Belgium and Iran in the group stage — offensively inconsistent, lowest xG of the batch (1.17).
Implied odds: Argentina 71.2% vs. Egypt 9.1% (draw 19.7%).
Verdict: Very strong Argentine favoritism — largest implied probability difference in the round of 16 after France vs. Paraguay. Egypt played a vibrant game against Australia, but Argentina's defense (xGA 2.00 is high for the scout, but compensated by collective quality and Messi on the other side) should be sufficient. Argentina is a clear favorite — an upset would require Egypt to perform far above what they have shown so far.
🇨🇭 Switzerland vs. Colombia
Tuesday, 7/07 — 5 PM (Brasília) — BC Place, Vancouver
Weather: ~14°C, feels like 14°C, no rain. Stadium with a retractable roof — stable conditions regardless of external weather.
Recent form: Switzerland thrashed Algeria 2-0 in the round of 32 after beating Qatar, overwhelming Bosnia (4-1), and defeating Canada (2-1) in the group stage — they only failed to win their first game. Colombia advanced with a narrow 1-0 win over Ghana in the round of 32, after victories over Uzbekistan and DR Congo and a tough 0-0 draw against Portugal — offensively they are the most explosive team in the batch (scout xG 3.60), but also the most vulnerable (xGA 1.60).
Implied odds: Colombia 43.1% vs. Switzerland 27.0% (draw 29.9%).
Verdict: The market favors Colombia due to their attack (Luis Díaz in great form), but Switzerland has the more balanced defense on both sides and has shown much more consistent results in the competition. A game of contrasting profiles — Colombian attack vs. Swiss solidity — with a real risk of a Swiss upset if they can neutralize Colombia's offensive power.
📋 Quick summary — favorites and upsets to watch
- Most solid favoritism: France (83.7%) and Argentina (71.2%)
- Most balanced games (high upset risk): Mexico vs. England and USA vs. Belgium, both with implied probability below 40% for either side
- Upset wild card: Morocco over Canada and Switzerland over Colombia — market favorites playing against teams in good defensive form or with home advantage
- Weather: no game has a risk of extreme heat (all classified as "moderate"); Dallas is the warmest and Mexico/Seattle/Vancouver are the coldest — the altitude of the Azteca weighs more than the temperature itself in the Mexico vs. England match
Analysis based on market odds (implied, without house margin), scout ratings, and recent form in the 2026 World Cup. Odds and conditions may change until kickoff — always consult the bookmaker for updated values.